2027 And Political Rhetorics In Nasarawa State

Danjuma Joseph

As Nigerians await the release of time table to kick-start political activities in the build up to the 2027 general elections, there are critical issues that borders on elections in Nasarawa State.

Of course, some of these issues aren’t new, but at times they are those things that can make or mar elections in a state so heterogeneous, multi lingual and multi religious as Nasarawa State.

Some of these factors are incumbency, political parties, external influence(s), kingmakers, religion, ethnic/tribal and the politics of zoning; all these can shape the quality and credibility of the the forthcoming general  elections in the country and the state in particular.

ZONING:
Zoning, is one of the most contentious issues in Nigeria politics, particularly in the two major political parties: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC).

It is often argued that zoning is not included in the 1999 Constitution as amended, or the Electoral Act, but it was a convenient measure adopted by the Peoples Democratic Party in 1999, with the return to civilian rule, in order to ensure fairness, equity, justice and a sense of political representation.

As earlier mentioned above, the word ‘zoning’ is not used in the 1999 Constitution, it is nonetheless in line with the ideals of Federal Character as stated in Sections 14(3), 147(3) and 171(5) and the establishment of a Federal Character Commission in Section 153 (1c) and Part 1(C) of the Third Schedule.

Sadly, the concept of Federal Character has been grossly abused in its application, the zoning principle in politics has helped to ensure a sense of balance, rotation and inclusion, so to jettison it for purposes of expediency would be counter-productive and costly.

It is therefore most unfortunate that as Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 general elections, there is so much disquiet and tension over zoning in Nasarawa State.

The kernel of it is the insistence by certain groups from Akwanga and Lafia zones, that there is nothing wrong in them contesting for governorship with Keffi zone come 2027.

The worst of it is that some groups from Nasarawa North are of the opinion that they took the last shot at the governorship of the state, why can’t they start in 2027. But, observers opined that this is not a thrift, rather a political power shift.

Based on the principle of zoning, Nasarawa West (Keffi zone) after 8 years, handed over power to Nasarawa South (Lafia zone) where it spent 12 years and handed over to Nasarawa North (Akwanga zone) that is rounding up its 8 years.

Political pundits and observers are of the opinion that instead of 16 years, Keffi zone waited for 20 years, so it is their turn, for fairness, equity and justice to prevail. Only time will tell how the pendulum is going to swing in 2027.

Some political analyst are of the opinion that politics of zoning is likely to make or mar the 2027 governorship election in Nasarawa State, with implications for the stability of the state if care is not taking.

INCUMBENCY FACTOR:
The incumbency factor is a political term for the advantages easily ascribed to an incumbent office holder who is seeking re-election. He or she,  is believed to have an advantage over a challenger by virtue of having held the office being contested for a specific period of time.

The incumbency factor as far as politics is concerned in Nigeria, is one of those syndromes, or say one of those major problems plaguing Nigeria’s nascent democracy.

Principally, because of the advantages of incumbency, it has always proved to be an uphill task for a challenger to defeat an incumbent in any political context and Nasarawa State, is not exceptional.

For instance, here in Nasarawa State, the incumbency factor played during the era of Senator Abdullahi Adamu, as the governor in 2007, where his preferred candidate, Aliyu Akwe Doma, of blessed memory emerge the winner of both PDP’s primary and governorship election.

Similarly, the Incubency factor played during Senator Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, as the then Governor, at both the APC’s primary and general elections, when his preferred candidate and present governor of the state, Engineer Abdullahi Sule, emerged winner.

Nasarawa State is watching with keen interest if history will repeat itself on the grounds that the incumbent governor, Engineer Abdullahi Sule, will assert his incumbency power to produce the next governor of the state under APC in 2027. Only time will tell.

TRIBALISM:
In his article “Tribalism and Politics in Nigeria,” Walter Schwarz (1966) wrote that “it is not that different tribes dislike each other. The trouble is they are competing for scarce commodities”.

Tribalism has the potential to threaten national stability, leading to conflicts and violence, as evidenced by the past elections. The implications of tribalism in the governorship elections in the past in Nasarawa state, is very huge and cannot be underestimated.

With over 29 ethnic groups, Nasarawa State is like a mini Nigeria, an archetype of a heterogeneous society whose voting pattern some times is tilted towards tribal sentiments.

This diversity has posed threats to previous elections in the state, just like it was the case in 2015 to 2023 governorship elections. So the forthcoming governorship election in 2027 cannot in any way be exceptional.

Political pundits are of the opinion that tribal politics will surely count in 2027 because the indigenous majority of the tribes in the state are yearning for one of their own to be the governor, be it Christian or Muslim.

RELIGION:
It has been confirmed that Nigeria is one of the most religious countries of the world, as such it should not be a surprise that Nigerian elections is always greatly influenced or mixed with religion.

It is very rare to find a Nigerian who is not devout in a nation that is roughly divided into a mainly Muslim north and a largely Christian south.

But then, the Nigerian  constitution 1999 as amended, guarantees religious freedom, the country has no official religion and none of its 36 states is allowed to adopt one. It also prohibits religious discrimination, but not with elections.

Religion is a very dicey and fragile issue in all ramifications in Nigeria and Nasarawa State, not only politics. It is a very strong factor that has been playing and will still play in 2027, because it has eaten deeper into the political fabrics of the country and the state.

Perhaps, that’s why the voting pattern has taken religious and tribal dimensions since 2019, but then only time will tell how the process is going to be in 2027 as far as governorship election is concern in Nasarawa State.

POLITICAL PARTIES:
In any democratic society, political parties continue to play an important role. Since May 29, 1999, the PDP and APC have dominated Nigeria’s political landscape.

The ruling party has been responsible for undermining Nigeria’s opposition parties since the return of Nigeria to democratic rule in 1999. Therefore, opposition parties have utilized techniques such as co-optation, alliance, and cooperation in order to stay relevant in Nigeria’s political process.

As such, political parties’ influence at virtually all elections in Nasarawa State, cannot be under estimated, because they hold the power to produce a candidate out of many aspirants eyeing a particular seat.

Pundits predicted that parties choice of candidates during the 2027 governorship election in Nasarawa State, can also make or mar their chances of winning, but only time will tell.

KING MAKERS:
Who is the political King Maker in Nigeria? The Voter or the godfather? This is a big question we all need to ponder on.

Another major factor that has been playing and will shape the governorship election of Nasarawa State come 2027 are the king makers, god-fatherism and power brokers.

These kingmakers have ruled the state in different capacities, they have electoral value attached to them, so when the  chips are down, they will go back to the drawing board to decide who is the next governor.

The major ones at the moment are the two former governors, Senators Abdullahi Adamu and Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, who in their rights are kingmakers.

For instance, while Abdullahi Adamu, against all odds annointed Late Aliyu Akwe Doma, as successor in 2007, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, against all odds also annointed the present governor, Engineer Abdullahi Sule, as his successor in 2019.

There are also four former deputy governors who commands large followership namely, Senator Solomon Ewuga, Prof. Onje Gyewado, Hon Labaran Maku and Chief Mike Abdul: they have much influence in subsequent governorship elections in the state, so 2027 is not going to be different.

The new man on the block of king makers is the incumbent Governor, Engineer Abdullahi Sule, who is bracing up to produce his successor in 2027.

We also have traditional rulers and some critical stakeholders from the state who have a say in the Nasarawa State project.

It will be recall that in 2019, traditional rulers from Akwanga zone played a very significant role through pasaution and lobby to ensure that power shifted to their zone, as such pundits said they still have a role to play in 2027.

EXTERNAL INFLUENCES:
External or internal influences, in most cases, are some of the factors that determines the out come of voting pattern exepecialy during governorship in Nasarawa State.

Voting decisions are at the heart of individuals who go out to vote the candidate(s) of their choice, but at times individuals decision are drive by external influence(s), that may suddenly change their mindset or perception.

In addition to the above, there are also allegations of external influences on governorship elections of Nasarawa State, where candidates are annointed from outside and imposed, or forced on the throat of the people of the state.

Whether it is true or not, politicians need to wake up and tight the loose ends in order not to give room to external influence, rather the people of Nasarawa State, should be allow to vote candidates of their choice.

In conclusion, critical stakeholders must therefore use the countdown to the 2027 general elections to massively educate electorates in the state on the dangers of some of the above factors possing as clog on the wheels of elections and progress of Nasarawa State.

Danjuma Joseph,
Is Veteran journalist from Nasarawa State.